US Dollar Index

Heading into the weekend, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.6% to reach approximately 102.27. This extended the dollar's gains, following the release of October employment data that significantly outperformed expectations. Non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000—more than double the projected 65,000—while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. Job growth was broad-based, led by the professional and business services and healthcare sectors, further demonstrating the labor market's resilience, underpinned by consumer spending and business investment. These robust figures reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance; investors now anticipate another rate hike in December to curb inflation. Policymakers will receive one more employment report and a full set of inflation data before their next meeting. Additionally, the dollar benefited from increased safe-haven demand amid a sell-off in global equity markets, which was driven by concerns regarding artificial intelligence valuations and tightening regulations.

Last week, the index initially faced downward pressure, hitting a low of 101.20—its lowest level in nearly a month—before staging a recovery. It reached a high near 102.25, closing with a bullish candle featuring a long body; while this suggests buying interest following a sharp decline, the overall short-term bearish structure remains intact. The price fell below the 9-period and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMA), with short-term moving averages now in a bearish alignment. Following the touch of 101.20 on Thursday, buying interest emerged, pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) up from oversold territory to 59.20. The MACD’s green bars have contracted, indicating a marginal weakening of bearish momentum, though no clear bullish reversal signal has yet formed. In terms of market drivers: the outcome of the midterm elections dampened expectations for fiscal expansion, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields and a sharp drop in the dollar. However, strong ADP employment data and the market’s continued pricing in of a December rate hike provided a floor for the index in the 101.20–101.00 range. Technical Outlook for Next Week: The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data will serve as the primary anchor for market direction following the week's opening, after which the market is likely to enter a phase of "volatility and renewed directional selection" as expectations are realized. On the daily chart, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 102.27—below the upper Bollinger Band at 102.56—maintaining a bearish short-term bias; previous rebound attempts have consistently failed to break above this upper-band resistance. The 14-day RSI sits just above the neutral 59 level, indicating that bullish momentum is fading, though the index has not yet reached deeply oversold territory, leaving the door open for continued fluctuations. Immediate resistance lies in the 102.46 (October 29 high) to 102.56 (upper Bollinger Band) zone, with further resistance at 102.94 (October 14 high) and the 103.00 psychological level. Only a daily close firmly above the 102.00 mark would alleviate short-term downward pressure; otherwise, any rebound toward moving averages is likely to encounter selling pressure, keeping the U.S. Dollar Index at risk of further declines. Key support to watch on the downside is 101.20 (last week’s low), followed by the 101.00 level; a breach of these could open the way for a deeper slide toward 100.74 (the 100-day moving average).

For today, consider shorting the U.S. Dollar at 102.40, with a stop-loss at 102.50 and targets at 102.00 and 101.80.

AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar has fallen below 0.6900, touching 0.6855—its lowest level since late March. A broad sell-off in global equity markets has dampened demand for risk-sensitive assets. The AUD is often viewed as a barometer for global risk sentiment; it has also come under pressure amid growing market concerns regarding stricter regulation of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, following a strong performance by the Democratic Party in the U.S. midterm elections. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates for the fifth time this year, pushing them to an 18-year high, while the market remains focused on the uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s future policy path. The rate hike was approved by a narrow 6–3 majority, and the guidance provided by the RBA was less hawkish than expected, fueling market speculation that interest rates may have reached their peak. However, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned that any erosion in public confidence regarding the RBA’s ability to control inflation could increase the cost of bringing inflation down, potentially necessitating a more aggressive policy response. Currently, the swaps market indicates only a 6% probability of another rate hike in December, while a 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year has already been fully priced in.

The RBA’s monetary policy committee recently voted 6–3 to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%—the highest level in 18 years. This decision comes against a backdrop of inflation remaining persistently above the target range, a notable decline in housing prices, and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate. Market expectations for further tightening have cooled rapidly; overnight index swaps (OIS) suggest a roughly 10% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting, with only about 8 basis points of additional tightening priced in through February 2027, followed by an implied 9 basis points of rate cuts by September 2027. The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.700 against the U.S. dollar. Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Henry Hao noted that while the committee opted to raise rates, its tone was softer than before, with three members dissenting due to concerns regarding the labor market and the housing sector. Technical Review (Last Week) — Last week’s market was characterized by typical news-driven volatility. Early in the week, the pair rallied toward the 0.7035 level, buoyed by Australian inflation data. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) implemented a rate hike, but the accompanying statement struck a dovish tone—notably omitting explicit forward guidance for further hikes—which caused a rapid cooling of bullish sentiment. The price subsequently retreated; compounded by fluctuations in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data and U.S. Treasury yields, the pair faced downward pressure for the remainder of the week. It touched a low of 0.6855—its weakest level since late March—and closed the week in the red, erasing previous gains. The price has fallen back below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which have now reverted to acting as resistance. The recent short-term rebound is interpreted as a corrective move within a broader downtrend, rather than a structural reversal. Key ranges for last week: a high of approximately 0.7045 and a low of 0.6860. The critical pivot point between bulls and bears was 0.6970; the pair tested this level multiple times but failed to establish a firm footing, confirming the end of the rebound. In summary: bullish momentum, initially fueled by inflation expectations, was dismantled by the RBA’s dovish decision. The market has shifted from a corrective rebound back to a bearish-leaning, volatile phase, with the 0.6970–0.7000 zone serving as a vital short-term threshold.

Technical Outlook (Next Week) — Overall tone: Bearish-leaning volatility, with a bias toward testing lower levels. A shift back to a bullish-leaning, volatile scenario would require the price to reclaim the 0.6970 pivot level. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair remains within a descending channel, confirming the dominance of the current bearish bias. Furthermore, as the spot price continues to trade below both the 5-day (0.6953) and 20-day (0.6988) Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), the short-term outlook for AUD/USD remains bearish. The positioning of short- and medium-term EMAs above the price suggests that any rebound may encounter selling pressure. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 34—not yet in oversold territory—indicating that downward pressure persists, though panic selling has not yet set in. Furthermore, the latest FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading, which is above 144, adds to the headwinds and reinforces the prevailing market bias to "sell into rallies." The AUD/USD pair may decline further toward an initial support level at 0.6833—a nine-month low recorded on March 30. A break below this level would open the door for a move toward the 0.6800 psychological level, near the lower boundary of the descending channel. On the upside, the pair could rebound to test the 0.6900 psychological level, which serves as a key resistance. Additional resistance lies at 0.6954 (the 5-day EMA), followed by 0.6988 (the 20-day EMA); a breakout above these levels would pave the way for a potential test of the 0.7000 psychological level.

For today, consider going long on the AUD at 0.6850, with a stop-loss at 0.6840 and targets at 0.6900 and 0.6910.

GBP/USD

Last week, the British pound climbed to a high of $1.3503, its strongest level since mid-September. This followed the Bank of England’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%—the first such hike in over three years. The vote was 8-1, and Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that further rate hikes might be necessary unless the conflict in Iran is resolved; an end to the conflict would help alleviate the inflationary pressures that prompted this rate increase. Following this, the market increased its bets on further monetary policy tightening, with three additional rate hikes now fully priced in through November 2027. Meanwhile, the British pound remained firm, bolstered by a broad weakening of the U.S. dollar—which fell to a one-month low following the Democratic Party’s sweeping success in the U.S. midterm elections.

Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) announced a 25-basis-point hike to its benchmark interest rate, bringing it to 4.0%—the first such increase in three years. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) approved the decision by an 8-to-1 vote, with Catherine Mann being the sole member to advocate for a 50-basis-point hike. The projected peak for inflation was revised upward to approximately 5% in the second quarter of 2027, alongside an upward revision to economic growth forecasts. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that the inflationary pressure stemming from current energy prices was sufficient to justify the move, though the future policy path will remain contingent on developments in the Middle East. Following the announcement, the GBP/USD pair rose by about 30 pips in the short term, reaching a high of 1.3501.

Review of last week’s technical performance: The week was defined by market anticipation, a post-BoE decision rally, and subsequent profit-taking ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Overall, the trend was volatile yet with an upward bias—a classic case of "volatility following the realization of a positive catalyst." Early in the week, the pair climbed steadily, supported by the 1.3380–1.3400 zone, as the market priced in the BoE rate hike in advance; the exchange rate pushed toward the 1.3470–1.3500 resistance area. On the daily chart, the price held above the 100-day moving average, with the RSI hovering between 55 and 58—indicating moderate bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory. Toward the end of the week, a rebound in the U.S. dollar ahead of the NFP data caused the pair to retreat from its highs, testing support near 1.3400. The week closed near the middle of the range, with the daily candle forming a bullish line with a long upper shadow—a pattern suggesting significant selling pressure overhead. Consequently, the short-term upward momentum has slowed, shifting the market from a one-sided rebound into a range-bound consolidation phase. Structural Summary—Bullish Bias: The pair has held above the 100-day moving average (1.3393), with lows consistently shifting higher, effectively breaking the medium-term downward channel.

Looking at the technical outlook for next week, GBP/USD has posted gains for the fourth consecutive week, further weakening the steep downtrend that began in late August. The multi-week recovery remains intact, supported by a successful breakout above the 50-day moving average (near 1.336), which has allowed the rebound to extend. The RSI has risen above 50, and the ADX—at approximately 22—points to a strengthening trend. On the upside, the next target is 1.3420 (the 200-day moving average), followed by 1.3496 (the upper Bollinger Band) and the 1.3503 area (last week’s high). On the downside, 1.3347 (the 20-day moving average) serves as the initial support level, with the 1.3300 psychological mark lying further below. A break below these levels would point toward 1.3272 (the October 28 low) and the 1.3250 level.

For today, consider going long on GBP/USD at 1.3350; stop-loss: 1.3340; targets: 1.3380 and 1.3390.

USD/JPY

Late last week, the yen hovered near the 158 level against the US dollar following two consecutive days of gains. Data showing the fastest growth in Japanese nominal wages in nearly three decades has reinforced market expectations for another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in December. Furthermore, minutes from the BOJ’s September meeting suggest that the central bank may accelerate the pace of monetary tightening, as it assesses factors such as developments in the Middle East, rising demand related to artificial intelligence, and movements in the foreign exchange market. In September, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate to 1.25%—a 31-year high—before keeping it unchanged in October, while noting that underlying inflation had reached its 2% target. As a global sell-off in equity markets intensified, the Japanese yen benefited from safe-haven demand; this market downturn was fueled by concerns that a decisive victory for the Democratic Party in the U.S. midterm elections could lead to stricter regulation of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.

Bulls in the USD/JPY pair failed to sustain the rebound that began from a weekly low of 157.40, with the pair facing selling pressure for two consecutive days. Bears are now waiting for a definitive break below the 158.00 level to open the door for further downside. The minutes from the BOJ’s September monetary policy meeting revealed a consensus among board members that continued policy rate hikes and an adjustment to the degree of monetary easing are appropriate—a stance that has solidified market expectations for a rate hike in December and provided a modest boost to the yen. Combined with a broader sell-off in the U.S. dollar, these factors have exerted downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. With major economic data pending, market sentiment remains cautious. Furthermore, persistent speculation regarding potential intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance to support the yen means that any rebound in USD/JPY is likely to encounter selling pressure. In the short term, the pair is expected to trade within a range; it is advisable to wait for a breakout before establishing directional positions.

Last week was characterized by range-bound consolidation, failed attempts to push higher, a slight downward shift in the center of gravity, and a "wait-and-see" approach ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data—a classic pattern of compressed volatility leading up to a major data release. The price action remained largely confined to a range between a weekly low of 157.25 and the 158.60–158.65 zone (the 200-day moving average), where repeated attempts to break higher were met with resistance. This area served as the primary zone for selling pressure throughout the week. The USD/JPY pair has faced repeated resistance during its rebound attempts. The MACD histogram is contracting, with the fast and slow lines converging, while the RSI has retreated to a neutral-to-weak zone—all signaling a waning of bullish momentum. Although the medium-to-long-term moving averages remain in a bullish alignment—suggesting the broader uptrend has not yet been invalidated—the short-term outlook has shifted from strong to range-bound with a bearish bias. Key drivers include: stronger-than-expected ADP employment data, which provided temporary support; Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes that reinforced market expectations for a December rate hike; and persistent warnings from Japanese authorities regarding potential currency intervention, which have prompted profit-taking during every rebound. Meanwhile, fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and a "wait-and-see" approach by investors ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report have kept volatility in check. In summary, while the bulls have lost their upward momentum, the bears have yet to secure a definitive, confirmed breakdown. The market is currently in a phase of "high-level consolidation," with the next directional move contingent upon the NFP data and the subsequent trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields.

Technical Outlook for Next Week—Core Trading Range: 156.60–158.66. A decisive daily close above or below these boundaries will serve as the critical pivot point between bullish and bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, USD/JPY has repeatedly failed to break above the 200-day moving average (currently at 158.65). The short-term bias remains bearish, as this moving average continues to suppress upward momentum, rendering any rebounds unstable and keeping the price range-bound below this resistance level. Only a daily close firmly above 158.65 would alleviate the current downward pressure and potentially trigger a sustained recovery toward 159.04 (the high from September 24), with a further breakout pointing toward the psychological level of 160.00. On the downside, initial support lies at last Friday’s low of 157.26, followed by the 157.00 round number, with the lower bound of the current range at 156.65. A definitive break below 156.65 would serve as a fresh bearish signal, likely triggering a deeper decline.

Consider shorting the USD at 158.65 today; stop-loss: 158.80; targets: 157.80, 157.60.

EUR/USD

Last week, the EUR/USD pair failed to benefit from the sell-off in U.S. tech stocks. European investors are keeping their cash in U.S. dollars, and the familiar safe-haven correlation—linked to U.S. Treasuries—has returned. Barring a weak U.S. employment report, the EUR/USD is expected to consolidate near 1.12, while market pricing for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in December remains persistent. The euro’s performance has been rather lackluster; European institutional investors have maintained low hedge ratios on their U.S. holdings. Even the sharp sell-off in U.S. tech stocks was insufficient to trigger significant buying in the EUR/USD. It appears that capital is shifting toward cash rather than exiting the U.S. dollar. This view is supported by the return of correlations to more familiar patterns, with U.S. Treasuries once again serving their role as a safe-haven asset.

The EUR/USD pair closed the first week of November near 1.1140, following nearly a full month of range-bound trading around the 1.1200 level. Persistent uncertainty has, to some extent, overshadowed key headlines; while the pair maintains a generally bearish bias, it remains trapped within its established range. Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections—amid market expectations of a Democratic victory—the U.S. dollar weakened during the first half of the week. As news emerged that the Republican Party had suffered a significant defeat—with the Democratic Party securing a larger-than-expected number of seats—the dollar fell further. However, this weakness was short-lived. On Thursday, as stock markets plummeted—led by a sell-off in tech shares that wiped out millions in market value—the dollar rebounded. The Democratic victory fueled concerns that the party, upon gaining control of Congress, might prioritize the regulation of artificial intelligence. Investors flocked to bonds, causing U.S. Treasury yields to retreat.

Last week, the EUR/USD experienced a volatile recovery—rising from lows before falling back—as bulls attempted a counterattack but lacked the momentum to break through key resistance levels. Overall, the price action can be characterized as a range-bound, bullish-leaning rebound; however, the pair has yet to break out of its existing range, and in the broader context, it remains a corrective phase following a prior downtrend. At the start of the week, the pair rose from the 1.1160–1.1180 support zone, pushing higher mid-week to reach a high of 1.1273. It subsequently encountered resistance and retreated, ending the week oscillating just below the 1.1200 level. The RSI has pulled back from higher levels, settling around the 38–34 range. The 20-day moving average, currently at 1.1191, acts as a constraint, joining the 1.1200 psychological level as a key bottleneck for the current rebound. In terms of drivers, a temporary decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a pullback in the U.S. Dollar have provided support to the Euro. However, persistent market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates—or potentially even hike rates in December—have capped the Euro’s upside. Meanwhile, a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) has provided a floor, limiting the scope for any sharp, deep decline. In summary: the bulls have gained temporary initiative but remain "choked" by resistance near 1.1280; the coming week will be a critical window for determining the next directional move.

Technical Outlook for Next Week: On the daily chart, EUR/USD remains in a short-term bearish configuration, with the spot price constrained below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1344. The pair is hovering slightly above the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1130, suggesting some initial buying interest in this area. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44, remaining below the neutral 50 level—an indication that, within a broader downward bias, there is only modest momentum for a rebound. On the upside, initial resistance lies near the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1258 and the 1.1273 level (last week’s high). Further up, the focus shifts to the July 28 low of 1.1353, followed by the more significant resistance of the 100-day SMA near 1.1415. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1125. A break below this area would open the path toward the 1.1100 psychological level.

Consider going long on the Euro at 1.1130 today; stop-loss: 1.1120; targets: 1.1170, 1.1180.

WTI Crude Oil

Heading into the weekend, WTI crude oil fluctuated just below $90 per barrel, swinging between gains and losses throughout the day. Since the beginning of the week, prices have seen significant volatility within a range of approximately $13, putting the commodity on track for its largest weekly decline since April 2020. This movement follows the clarification of the U.S. midterm election results, prompting the market to reassess the potential for de-escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts and the possible restoration of energy flows. A call between the Emir of Qatar and the U.S. President has further signaled diplomatic efforts; however, the recovery of physical supply alongside persistent disruptions in refined products continues to keep price volatility high. A rebound in crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf has weighed on market sentiment. Across regions—from the Middle East to the North Sea and West Africa—physical crude prices have recently softened, in some cases shifting to a discount. Shipments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are gradually returning to pre-conflict levels, reigniting competition for market share among producers. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of crude oil sold to Asia to a six-year low—a move reflecting narrowing premiums in the spot market and increased bargaining power for buyers.

While crude oil prices have retreated, the refined petroleum product market continues to face supply constraints. Limited product exports from the Gulf region, compounded by capacity losses resulting from attacks on Russian refineries, have provided support for product prices. This divergence in the spread between crude oil and refined products highlights the asymmetric impact of the conflict across different segments of the supply chain. Downstream refinery margins and inventory fluctuations will serve as key indicators for gauging the severity of physical supply shortages moving forward. Meanwhile, a sell-off in European equity markets and a strengthening U.S. Dollar have further amplified volatility in crude oil prices. The correlation between risk assets and commodities has become increasingly pronounced in the current environment. As the market digests political signals, it must simultaneously contend with tangible supply-side disruptions and bottlenecks across product value chains.

Review of last week’s technical performance: WTI crude oil experienced a sharp sell-off, plunging approximately 12.36% for the week—a notably large bearish candle, rarely seen in recent years. The primary driver was the rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium associated with the Middle East, as the market priced in an easing of conflict-related tensions. Closing slightly below $90 on Friday, the price saw a minor uptick toward the end of the session; this represents a tentative stabilization at a low level following a major decline, rather than a confirmed reversal. On a weekly timeframe, the long, bearish candle marks a retreat from recent highs, breaking through several medium-term moving averages and shifting the weekly trend from bullish to bearish. The price has exited its previous upward channel; the weekly MACD has turned downward with expanding green (bearish) bars, and the RSI has fallen rapidly toward the lower end of the neutral range—not yet in extreme oversold territory, but reflecting intense bearish momentum. Key characteristics of last week included a precipitous drop, heightened liquidity volatility, and the widespread triggering of short positions by trend-following (CTA) funds. While there was some exploratory buying at lower levels, confidence remained weak, limiting the scope of any rebounds—each attempt to rally was quickly met with renewed selling pressure.

Technical outlook for the coming week: On the daily chart, WTI crude oil suffered a severe setback early last week (dropping more than 8% on Wednesday alone). Some profit-taking helped the price rebound from a fresh multi-week low of $86.02. This sharp decline was halted by significant technical support, which includes the 50% retracement level of the rally from $70.13 to $117.43, the convergence of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud. The technical outlook has deteriorated significantly following the breakdown below the strong support zone at $100 (a level serving as a psychological threshold, a trendline support, and the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud). Negative momentum has intensified, accompanied by a "death cross" (where the 10-day moving average crosses below the 20-day moving average). The $100 level, now breached, has turned into a key resistance zone. Downside targets lie at $88.12 (the lower Bollinger Band) and $85.19 (the September 1st low). On the upside, focus on $93.95 (the 50-day moving average); a break above this would point toward $96.71 (the middle Bollinger Band).

For today, one might consider going long on crude oil at $89.60, with a stop-loss at $89.45 and targets at $91.50 and $92.00.

Spot Gold

Heading into the weekend, the price of gold retreated to around $4,065 per ounce. This followed a stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, which bolstered the U.S. dollar and reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates at its next policy meeting. The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October—well above the 65,000 expected by the market—while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. Employment figures for the previous two months were also revised upward, adding a combined 84,000 jobs. Further fueling hawkish expectations, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% forecast; meanwhile, a renewed rise in crude oil prices has heightened concerns regarding inflation. Despite Friday’s pullback, gold still posted a gain of over 4.90% for the week. Following a decisive victory for the Democratic Party in the U.S. midterm elections, safe-haven demand provided support for gold, prompting investors to trim their holdings in artificial intelligence stocks in favor of defensive assets.

The robust U.S. hiring data underscores the resilience of the labor market, granting the Federal Reserve more leeway to continue its fight against inflation and strengthening the case for an interest rate hike in December. Higher interest rates enhance the appeal of interest-bearing assets, thereby weighing on non-yielding gold. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is trading near 102.25—up 0.62% for the day. U.S. Treasury yields have also rebounded, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 4 basis points to 4.88%. Meanwhile, a deepening sell-off in the stock market—partly driven by concerns surrounding artificial intelligence—has exposed gold to liquidity-driven liquidation, as investors trim positions to raise cash, meet margin calls, or cover losses elsewhere. Nevertheless, supported by a sharp decline in oil prices, gold remains on track to snap a three-week losing streak.

Last week’s price action followed a classic "V-shaped" pattern—a rebound from an oversold state, followed by a reversal once positive catalysts were priced in. The market staged a strong recovery from lows, encountered resistance, and then—following the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data—saw a wave of profit-taking by bulls. This erased most of the gains, resulting in a weekly candle with a long upper shadow; this should be viewed as a corrective rebound within a downtrend, rather than a signal of a definitive trend reversal. The weekly range saw a rebound starting from just above 3,880, peaking near 4,150, before retreating under pressure from the robust NFP report to a low of 4,030–4,035. The week concluded in the 4,060–4,070 range. Prices remain below the 5-week and 10-week moving averages, meaning the broader bearish structure remains intact. However, the weekly close—a positive candle with a long lower shadow—suggests buying interest at lower levels and a temporary exhaustion of bearish momentum, signaling a transition from a one-sided decline to a phase of wide-ranging consolidation and bottom-building. The weekly RSI has recovered from oversold territory but has yet to cross above the 50-level, which serves as the dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. Volume-Price Structure: Trading volume is higher during the upward phase and lower during the pullback. This represents routine profit-taking following a rebound, rather than a new wave of indiscriminate selling. The 4,000 level serves as the primary line of defense for the bulls; a decisive break below this level would signal the failure of the current rebound and likely lead to a retest of the previous low near 3,880.
Technical Outlook for Next Week: From a logical standpoint, strong employment data has enhanced the relative attractiveness of the U.S. Dollar, exerting direct pressure on gold. On the 4-hour chart, Gold/USD remains above both the 50-period (4,005) and 100-period (4,047) Simple Moving Averages (SMA), suggesting a constructive short-term bias, even though the price remains capped by the 200-period SMA at 4,110. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) has retreated from the overbought zone to around 55, indicating a cooling of bullish momentum, though the outlook remains slightly positive. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is hovering near the zero line, reflecting limited directional momentum. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 200-period SMA (4,110), followed by a horizontal resistance level near 4,200; a sustained breakout above these points would pave the way for a stronger bullish continuation. On the downside, initial support is found at the 50-period SMA (4,005), with the 4,000 level—a key psychological threshold—providing broader structural support. A deeper pullback could lead to a retest of the year-to-date low near 3,870.30, a level where buyers are expected to defend the prevailing uptrend.

For today, consider going long on gold at 4,060, with a stop-loss at 4,055 and targets at 4,100 and 4,110.