Equity Analysis:

Australia ASX 200 Index

Market Overview:

Last week, the Australian ASX 200 traded in a pattern of early strength followed by consolidation, finishing higher on the week. The main drivers came in two phases: on Monday, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp gap higher; on Tuesday, the RBA's decision to leave rates unchanged lifted risk appetite. In the second half of the week, softer domestic economic signals and a pullback in crude oil created sector divergence, but the index still moved higher in choppy trade. The index opened the week at a low of 8,782 and climbed intraday to 8,914, a seven-week high. It closed the week at 8,867, up about 1.7%, ending two consecutive weeks of losses. The market's base case was confirmed as the RBA kept the cash rate at 4.35%. After three rate increases this year, investors now see the tightening cycle as having peaked, with rate-cut expectations modestly rising. Capital rotated out of high-volatility energy stocks and into financials and defensive consumer staples. Ahead of the weekend, the index remained locked in a high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The resumption of a US-Iran navigation agreement drove oil prices sharply lower, reducing the risk of a second global inflation shock and easing concerns that central banks may need to stay restrictive for longer. Asia-Pacific risk assets rallied broadly, giving a meaningful boost to Australia's export-oriented equity market. At the same time, markets have fully priced a terminal cash rate of 4.35%, while traders have started to position for a possible fourth-quarter rate cut. This directly supports rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, property, and consumer stocks, forming the key domestic pillar behind the index's ability to hold elevated levels.

Technical Analysis:

Last week, the ASX 200 moved from an early advance into a weaker, range-bound structure, trading mainly between 8,750 and 8,900. Technically, the market remains in a tug-of-war, with the near-term focus on whether the 8,778 level, around the 200-day moving average, and the 8,810 resistance area can be broken decisively. RBA policy, commodity prices, and global market volatility should remain key watchpoints. RSI (14) is around 52-55, a neutral zone with no clear overbought or oversold signal. MACD at 45.78 is slightly below the signal line at 47.48, showing a mild bearish signal, but momentum is weak. ADX (14) is around 17.5, indicating a weak trend and a consolidation phase. Strong resistance sits at 8,810-8,890, near the previous highs and the 200-day moving average, an area that has been tested several times without a valid breakout. Medium resistance is at 8,950-9,000, combining this week's high and the psychological round-number level. Strong support lies at 8,750-8,778, a key cluster around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Medium support is at 8,650-8,700, near last week's low and the consolidation platform. Minor support is around 8,547, a previous important low.

Trading Strategy:

The following is a technical trading framework only and does not constitute investment advice. Losses from leveraged trading may exceed your initial capital.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Market Overview:

US equities finished broadly higher last week, with technology shares again becoming the main driver of market gains. At the close, the S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,500.58, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.91% to 26,517.93, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 72.15 points, or 0.14%, to 51,564.70. Market attention centred on semiconductors. Intel jumped 10.6% to a record high after US President Donald Trump said Apple had agreed to work with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the United States. On a weekly basis, US equities maintained strong upward momentum. Because US markets were closed on Friday for Juneteenth, the week ended early.

The S&P 500 gained 0.9% for the week, marking its 11th weekly gain in the past 12 weeks. The Dow rose 0.7%, while the Nasdaq was the strongest performer, advancing 2.4%. Analysts believe that the continued spread of AI investment, resilient corporate earnings growth, and optimism over lower energy prices are helping US equities maintain their uptrend.

Currency Analysis:

US Dollar Index

Last week, the US Dollar Index rose to around 101.13, its highest level since May 2025, as investors increased bets on further rate hikes this year after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish signal. At midweek, the Fed kept rates unchanged as expected, but roughly half of FOMC participants now expect at least one rate increase in 2026. The Fed also raised its inflation forecasts to reflect the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give guidance on the next policy move, but reiterated the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. Meanwhile, a temporary US-Iran peace agreement took effect on Thursday, ending a prolonged conflict that had caused a historic disruption to global energy supply. Although the agreement helped ease geopolitical risk and push oil prices lower, markets remain focused on the Fed's policy outlook and the possibility of tighter monetary conditions.

As traders price a more hawkish Fed outlook, the dollar may have further upside. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed in his first press conference that 'price stability' remains the Fed's ultimate guiding principle. At the same time, the dollar may face some headwinds as safe-haven demand fades following the initial US-Iran agreement. According to CNN, the agreement starts a 60-day negotiation period aimed at reaching a final deal to end the war. US military officials also confirmed earlier that the blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz had ended, with officials saying millions of barrels of oil were again moving through this critical waterway. Positive progress around the US-Iran peace deal may support risk assets, including the euro, in the short term.

Last week, the Dollar Index first dipped and then rallied sharply in a rate-decision-driven one-way move. The Fed's hawkish shift quickly triggered a chain reaction across FX markets. The index rose to 100.92 on Thursday, its highest level since May 2025. By the final trading day before the weekend, it had surged to 101.13, marking its largest single-day gain in more than three months. From a chart-pattern perspective, the previous 99.00-100.00 consolidation box was broken on volume, with the upper boundary at 100.00 turning from resistance into strong support. The week closed with a large bullish candle, a very short lower shadow, and limited upper shadow. The close marked a new phase high and engulfed the prior two weeks of small-range candles, forming a bullish box-breakout pattern. Trend strength has shifted from consolidation to a directional bull move. On the daily chart, MACD remains in a widening bullish crossover above the zero line, with the histogram expanding, while RSI (14) is around 68, indicating moderate bullish momentum without a near-term overbought topping signal.

After breaking above the March 2026 peak of 100.64 late last week, the Dollar Index found support and then surged to the recent high at 101.13. The longer it holds above this area, the greater the probability of bullish continuation. Weekly and daily charts have both completed a consolidation-box breakout, creating multi-timeframe bullish alignment. The first upside resistance is 101.13-101.25, the year's phase-high pressure zone and the area where Friday's rally stalled. The second resistance is the 102.00 round number, the mid-2025 consolidation top and a medium-term resistance level. Further resistance is at 103.00, last year's high area and a key trend dividing line. Near-term strong support is 100.80-101.00, the post-breakout platform and the first intraday buy zone on pullbacks. The core box support is 100.00, this week's breakout and psychological level; as long as a pullback holds above it, the bullish trend remains intact. A valid daily close below 100 would invalidate this breakout. Medium-term confluence support is at 99.30-99.50, where the 5-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages cluster, marking the week's consolidation centre and the defensive line for the bullish trend.

Today, consider shorting the US Dollar Index at 100.85, with a stop loss at 100.97 and targets at 100.30 and 100.40.

AUD/USD

Last week, AUD/USD hovered around 0.7000, close to a 10-week low, and faced a modest weekly loss as a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for further RBA tightening weighed on the currency. Markets increasingly suspect that the RBA may have ended its tightening cycle after keeping the cash rate unchanged this week, with the probability of another hike this year falling to around 50%. Although Governor Michele Bullock said further tightening remains possible if inflation persists, markets believe a significant upside surprise in second-quarter inflation would be needed to trigger another move. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index climbed to a one-year high after the Fed's hawkish hold, prompting traders to raise bets on further rate hikes. Nearly half of policymakers expect at least one hike this year due to rising inflation concerns. Elsewhere, the temporary US-Iran agreement and the restoration of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz provided some support to the risk-sensitive Australian dollar.

CNN reported on Friday that the White House said the first technical talks with Iran under this week's memorandum of understanding would not take place on Friday because Iranian officials had difficulty leaving Iran. US Vice President Vance added that he expected to travel to Switzerland at some point over the weekend. Traders will closely monitor progress on the peace agreement. A lack of progress in US-Iran talks or signs of renewed tensions in the Middle East could lift the safe-haven US dollar and pressure the major pair. In addition, US data released since late April has been surprisingly strong and above expectations, while the Fed has delivered its most hawkish stance relative to market expectations, supporting further dollar strength.

Overall, AUD/USD traded in a pattern of an early push higher followed by a pullback and tight consolidation near the lows. The pair is likely to have closed lower on the week, with US dollar strength and Australian dollar weakness dominating price action. The short-term bias is neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear one-way trend and range trading still the main structure. At this stage, the 20-day moving average at 0.7090 forms strong medium-term resistance; several rebounds this week stalled there, and the pair continues to trade below the average, confirming a weaker medium-term signal. The 14-day moving average at 0.7060 has shifted from support to resistance and is the first rebound hurdle. The short-term 5- and 10-day moving averages are turning lower, forming a bearish alignment that caps rebound room. Daily RSI remains in the 35-38 neutral-to-weak zone, neither oversold nor overbought. Downside momentum has eased, but there is no bullish divergence or bottoming signal. Rebounds above 50 on RSI are likely to meet resistance, showing insufficient bullish strength. MACD downside momentum has weakened, but the fast and slow lines have not formed a bullish crossover, so there is still no clear signal that bulls have regained control.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7000 and retains a short-term bearish tone. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is close to 30, indicating a stronger trend backdrop and reinforcing the view that rebounds may face selling pressure. The pair remains capped by the medium-term moving-average cluster. Initial resistance is at 0.7060, the 14-day moving average and horizontal resistance, followed by 0.7091, the 20-day moving average, and the 0.7100 round number. Together, these levels form a dense supply zone that bulls need to clear to ease the current bearish bias. Further resistance is at 0.7132, the 34-day moving average. On the downside, focus on the broad support band formed by the lower Bollinger Band at 0.6959 and the nearby 0.6900 level. Deeper support is at 0.6852, the 200-day moving average.

Today, consider going long AUD at 0.7000, with a stop loss at 0.6990 and targets at 0.7050 and 0.7040.

GBP/USD

Last week, the Bank of England announced its June monetary-policy decision, keeping the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% by a 7-2 vote, in line with expectations. Two external members, Megan Greene and Chief Economist Huw Pill, voted for a 25-bp rate increase. In the short term, sterling faces some corrective pressure. GBP/USD fell quickly and touched a low of 1.3163 as the market digested the signal of a 'hawkish hold'. In the current global backdrop, policy divergence among major central banks is clear. The ECB and BOJ had already raised rates the previous week, while the Fed, under its new chair, signalled the possibility of further increases this year. In the UK, May CPI held at 2.8%, while energy prices remain uncertain due to Middle East volatility. Before the decision, market debate centred mainly on the voting split and inflation-forecast revisions.

In the short term, sterling faces some adjustment pressure as markets digest the 'hawkish hold'. If upcoming economic data and energy prices remain stable, downside may be limited. Over the medium term, the MPC has emphasised upside risks to inflation, suggesting that policy options remain open if supported by data. Overall price action should remain data-driven. If fourth-quarter inflation moderates as expected, sterling may gradually stabilise; if energy prices push expectations higher again, additional volatility is likely. Over the longer term, modest improvement in UK growth and the global interest-rate environment will jointly determine the pair's trading range.

Last week was a major central-bank week for both the UK and the US. The pair first traded sideways, then broke lower sharply to a near three-month low below 1.32. It closed lower on the week, with the short-term structure turning bearish. GBP/USD rallied into resistance at 1.3460, last week's high, before falling continuously. This week, price broke below the 20-day moving average at 1.3393 and the 50-day moving average at 1.3463; both have shifted from support into strong resistance. The weekly structure now marks a medium-term bull-bear dividing line. The exchange rate is trading below the Bollinger midline, confirming a medium-term range-bearish structure. MACD has turned lower, with the green histogram expanding, showing strengthening bearish momentum. RSI (14) has fallen from a neutral 52 to 35, not yet oversold below 30, leaving further downside room and showing no bottoming signal.

According to the daily chart, GBP/USD is currently weak in the short term. The pair has fallen sharply below the short-term moving averages, creating strong overhead pressure. The medium- to long-term 100-day and 200-day moving averages are flattening and drifting lower, turning the broader moving-average system from neutral into bearish. Structurally, after peaking at 1.3658 on 1 May, the pair weakened in a choppy pattern and then dropped quickly under the impact of hawkish Fed expectations, with rebounds remaining weak. The pair has struggled to reclaim the 20-day moving average at 1.3391, showing insufficient bullish demand. If it cannot recover the 20-day average and the 50-day average at 1.3463 in the short term, the bearish trend is likely to continue, with a high probability of testing 1.3200, the psychological support. A valid break below that level would expose 1.3149, the weekly lower Bollinger Band. Overall, the technical structure remains bearish. Until there is a clear bottoming signal, the preferred approach is to sell into rebounds.

Today, consider going long GBP at 1.3224, with a stop loss at 1.3210 and targets at 1.3270 and 1.3280.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY held above 161.00 late last week after pulling back from 161.81, its highest level since July 2024. Hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan and the April meeting minutes confirmed expectations for further rate hikes, offsetting softer national CPI data from Japan and supporting the yen amid intervention concerns. Against the backdrop of broad US dollar strength, the yen continued to weaken, with USD/JPY firmly holding above the 160 round number. Although Japanese financial authorities have repeatedly stated that they are closely monitoring exchange-rate volatility and are ready to take appropriate action against yen depreciation, those statements have not effectively slowed dollar bulls. Intervention uncertainty keeps all yen traders highly alert. However, it is worth noting that the BOJ delivered a rate hike this week, yet the move still failed to lift the weak yen. This has led the market to question whether even short-term FX intervention by Japanese authorities could generate a sustained yen recovery.

At this stage, Japanese authorities have again stepped up verbal intervention. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that the government stands ready to respond to excessive currency moves. The yen has now erased all of the gains recorded on 30 April, when authorities conducted a record-scale intervention to support the currency. The latest decline has occurred even as the Bank of Japan is gradually tightening monetary policy, including an earlier 25-bp rate hike to 1% in response to energy-driven inflation shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. The US dollar also strengthened after the Fed held rates steady while signalling support for further increases later this year. The widening policy divergence between Japan and the US continues to weigh on the yen.

USD/JPY traded in a wide high-level range during the week. The medium- to long-term bullish trend remains intact, but intervention-related selling pressure in the 161.00-161.80 area capped further upside and intensified the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. With the BOJ rate hike and the Fed's hawkish policy meeting both acting as major catalysts, the technical setup is best described as 'bullish trend plus short-term overbought correction'. On the weekly chart, the 20-, 50-, and 200-week moving averages are all aligned upward, and price remains above all major medium- and long-term averages. There is no reversal signal on the larger timeframe. Last week's small bullish candle with a long upper shadow showed that the pair met heavy supply above 161 after reaching 161.81, leaving bulls unable to extend the rally and moving the market into a consolidation phase within the uptrend. MACD remains in a bullish crossover above the zero line, although the histogram has narrowed slightly, suggesting that medium- to long-term bullish momentum remains but marginal upside momentum weakened after the spike. RSI (14) is around 68, below the 70 overbought threshold, leaving medium-term upside room, but a short-term pullback or consolidation is needed.

On the other hand, yen bulls are backed by Japan's Ministry of Finance, but that is not a guaranteed bet. Tokyo disclosed that from late April to late May it spent about JPY 11.73 trillion, roughly USD 73 billion, defending the currency. This was the most intensive yen-buying operation in recent years and, by some measures, the largest since 2004. The move pushed USD/JPY lower, but the yen has since returned to the 160 area. In terms of levels, 160.00 is the key dividing line: it is both a psychological threshold and an area that Tokyo has shown it is willing to defend with real capital. Above it, the cycle high near 161.81 is resistance. A clean break toward 162.00 would likely produce a fast, one-way move, at which point the Ministry of Finance would probably intervene. On the downside, 160.00 is the first psychological support. If the Fed turns dovish on Wednesday or oil prices continue to fall, 159.24, the 34-day moving average, would be the next support level.

Today, consider shorting USD at 161.48, with a stop loss at 161.55 and targets at 160.60 and 160.50.

EUR/USD

Last week, US President Donald Trump signed an agreement with Iran to end the war that had disrupted global energy supply, helping EUR/USD move higher. The initial US-Iran agreement opened a 60-day negotiation window aimed at reaching a final deal to end the war. US military officials also confirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz had ended, with officials saying millions of barrels of oil were again flowing through this critical waterway. Positive developments around the US-Iran peace agreement may support risk assets in the short term, including shared currencies such as the euro. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said at his press conference that 'price stability' would be the Fed's guiding principle. A hawkish Fed hold could support the US dollar and cap the major pair.

EUR/USD fell intraday to 1.1417 last week, a two-and-a-half-month low. The pair began falling after trading above 1.1600 on Tuesday and is expected to finish the week down another 0.9%. The decline was driven by expectations that the Fed may tighten policy further and by weak economic conditions in Germany. Despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, Fed officials still see improving economic activity and a stronger labour market. The dot plot showed that nearly half of committee members expect to raise rates before year-end, although it did not include Warsh's forecast. After the meeting, US Treasury yields rose and the US dollar strengthened against other major currencies. Following the Fed's hawkish decision, EUR/USD briefly broke below the key 1.1500 level and touched the 1.1450 area. For now, however, the market does not appear to have strong momentum to push the pair much lower. Given that markets generally believe the Fed will not raise rates, the 1.14/1.15 range may still become the exchange-rate floor for the summer.

Last week, EUR/USD formed a classic spike-and-reversal structure, moving from an early rise into a one-way decline. The pair lost more than 1.3% for the week, its largest weekly drop since mid-March. The weekly chart shows a medium-term bearish turn: EUR/USD closed with a long upper-shadow bearish candle after failing at the 1.1600 round number and the 1.1622 resistance area, last week's high, forming a bearish engulfing-type weekly pattern. In the moving-average system, price broke below the 5-week moving average at 1.1562, a medium-term dividing line. The average has turned lower, suggesting that the medium-term bullish trend has ended for now. RSI (14) has fallen to 35, a weak zone but not extreme oversold territory, meaning downside momentum is not yet exhausted. MACD has formed a bearish crossover as DIFF moved below DEA, with the green histogram expanding and bearish momentum increasing.

EUR/USD has been falling steadily since the April high at 1.1848 and is now trading near 1.1456, close to the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1458. The pair has already broken below the Bollinger midline at 1.1579 and the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages. All medium-term moving averages have turned into overhead resistance, while the Bollinger Bands have opened lower, confirming a complete downtrend channel. The dominant trend remains downward. Near-term support is at 1.1411, the 13 March low, and the 1.1400 round number. A valid break would expose the 2 June 2025 low at 1.1347. Even if a mild oversold rebound emerges, the 1.1528 area, last Thursday's high, and 1.1539, the 9-day moving average, should form strong resistance, followed by the Bollinger midline at 1.1579.

Today, consider going long EUR at 1.1460, with a stop loss at 1.1448 and targets at 1.1530 and 1.1520.

Commodity Analysis:

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI crude rebounded to above USD 76 per barrel late last week, but it is still on track for a sharp weekly loss of about 8%, as investors welcomed improved shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. The move followed a temporary US-Iran peace agreement that ended a prolonged conflict responsible for the largest supply disruption on record. US Central Command announced that restrictions on traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal waters had been lifted, while the Joint Maritime Information Centre advised vessels transiting the strait to follow routes closer to the Omani coast to reduce mine risk. Tankers carrying previously stranded crude began leaving the waterway on Thursday, and Kuwait said it would start increasing production. As a result, oil prices have nearly erased all gains made since the Middle East conflict began in late February.

Last Friday, US WTI crude rebounded toward USD 76.00 per barrel after earlier touching a three-month low of USD 72.79. Although expectations for geopolitical easing were positive, ongoing Israeli strikes in southern Iran kept the market alert to uncertainty around US-Iran talks in Switzerland. Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced on Thursday that, under the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, the Strait of Hormuz would waive transit fees for approved vessels for the next 60 days, with the Iranian government covering the cost. On the same day, US Central Command confirmed that, under the president's instructions, the blockade of maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas had been lifted and all US military blockade operations had stopped. These dense signals suggest a substantive easing in the US-Iran confrontation.

The crude market is currently showing a structural divergence: short-term prices are weak, while longer-term expectations remain relatively firm. Overall, uncertainty in global energy markets is concentrated around the pace of the energy transition and the strength of demand from emerging economies; both will be key variables in determining the medium- to long-term oil-price centre. With the US and Iran signing a ceasefire memorandum and the Middle East geopolitical risk premium being rapidly unwound, WTI spot crude posted a one-way sell-off followed by weak low-level repair. The weekly candle closed as a large bearish bar, with losses of more than 8%, completely reversing the previous bullish structure. On the daily chart, WTI has decisively broken below the rising trend support line that had been in place since April, officially entering a downtrend channel. Price remains below the 5-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages, which are aligned bearishly; each rebound is likely to meet moving-average supply. MACD is running below the zero line, with bears in control. Thursday's small low-level bullish crossover only reflects oversold repair, not a reversal. RSI (14) touched an oversold low of 32 and recovered to 34 in the second half of the week, suggesting that the oversold repair has largely completed and rebound room is limited.

At the same time, monitor the formal US-Iran ceasefire memorandum signed on 19 June. If negotiations break down and conflict resumes in the Middle East, oil could rebound violently in the short term and directly break the bearish technical structure. The market is currently in a downside-repair phase, with sharp whipsaw moves and repeated stop-outs for both longs and shorts. Therefore, if the daily close holds above USD 76.47, the 5-day moving average, and volume expands, the downtrend would be temporarily repaired, with upside targets at USD 80.00, the psychological level, and USD 80.88, the 9-day moving average. However, the large bearish weekly candle still suppresses price action, and strong selling pressure remains around USD 80-81, making a sustained bullish trend difficult. If oil fails to hold above USD 76.47 and turns lower, a break of the 74.5 support area would open a retest of USD 72.79, last week's low, and USD 72.83, the 200-day moving average, with potential further downside toward USD 70.

Today, consider going long crude oil at 76.30, with a stop loss at 76.10 and targets at 78.00 and 79.00.

Spot Gold

Late last week, gold slipped below USD 4,200 per ounce, erasing earlier gains, as the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal outweighed the positive impact of the US-Iran peace agreement, which pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns. At midweek, the Fed kept rates unchanged as expected, but indicated stronger support for rate hikes this year. Higher borrowing costs tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing their opportunity cost. Meanwhile, investors welcomed signs of improved shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz after the temporary US-Iran peace agreement took effect, ending the largest supply disruption on record. However, traders remained cautious, expecting that shipping activity and energy flows may take months to return to pre-conflict levels.

After a sharp sell-off late last week, gold is now trading slightly above the one-week low of USD 4,122 touched earlier on Friday. The US dollar remains near its highest level since May 2025 and retains a bullish bias due to the Fed's hawkish tone, which has helped drive funds away from non-yielding gold for a third consecutive day. In addition, uncertainty around the next round of US-Iran talks supports the dollar's reserve-currency status and adds further pressure on the commodity. Traders now see a 70% probability of a US rate hike in September, keeping US Treasury yields elevated and continuing to support the dollar. Any sign of renewed Middle East tensions or a lack of progress in US-Iran talks could further lift the safe-haven dollar. With market focus still on developments in the Middle East crisis, gold appears set for a third consecutive weekly decline.

Last week, gold first rebounded and spiked higher, then sold off sharply in a one-way drop before consolidating near the lows ahead of the weekend. It is now in a weak low-level consolidation phase. Rebounds are very limited, with each recovery meeting resistance in the USD 4,300-4,350 area. The weekly candle closed bearish with a long upper shadow, showing bears back in control as the USD 4,200 psychological level remains heavily contested. From a technical perspective, repeated failures to break the 20-day simple moving average at 4,357 and the subsequent decline favour gold bears. RSI is hovering near 36, reflecting weak demand but not a clearly oversold condition. MACD also remains in negative territory, with the line below the signal line and a subdued histogram, indicating persistent downside pressure. Meanwhile, the 14-day simple moving average at USD 4,293 is the first resistance level. Bulls need a daily close above this level to ease the current downside bias and signal a more durable rebound phase. Until then, gold remains vulnerable to further declines, and any new selling may be driven more by momentum than by specific daily-chart support levels.

At present, spot gold has initially lost the USD 4,200 level. USD 4,200 per ounce is viewed as the short-term bull-bear dividing line. If gold can reclaim and hold this level, short-term bulls may retain the upper hand, with upside resistance near USD 4,293, the 14-day simple moving average, and the next target at USD 4,466, the 200-day simple moving average. Conversely, if gold breaks decisively below USD 4,200, support will shift lower to the USD 4,100 round number and the strong support area near USD 4,121, last week's low. A further break would point toward USD 4,023, the 11 June low. This means gold is currently sitting at the edge of a support zone, and the battle around USD 4,200 will determine the near-term direction.

Today, consider going long gold at 4,150, with a stop loss at 4,145 and targets at 4,200 and 4,220.