Global financial markets experienced another turbulent week as stronger-than-expected US employment data triggered sharp moves across currencies, equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.

The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, nearly three times market expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. The robust employment report quickly strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again in December. The US Dollar Index surged, Treasury yields climbed, and gold briefly fell towards $4,033 per ounce. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained volatile around the $75,000 level.

At the same time, US technology stocks staged a strong rebound following Thursday's dramatic sell-off. The Nasdaq Composite gained approximately 1.6% intraday, while the S&P 500 advanced around 1%. Major AI and semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia and Micron Technology, recovered some of their earlier losses. However, investors remained cautious about the sustainability of the rebound, particularly amid concerns that the Democrats' decisive victory in the US midterm elections could lead to tighter regulations on artificial intelligence and data centre development.

Looking at the broader market, investors are now navigating three competing forces.

First, the US labour market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, giving the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to pursue further monetary tightening. Second, the midterm election results have reshaped the US political landscape, potentially bringing significant regulatory changes to AI, data centres, and cryptocurrencies. Third, the possibility of renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict means that energy price pressures and inflation risks remain far from resolved.

Market Recap: Last Week
Despite the sharp reactions in the US dollar and gold markets, Wall Street attracted bargain hunters on Friday following the previous session's heavy losses. The Nasdaq Composite rebounded by approximately 1.6% intraday, the S&P 500 gained around 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated near the flatline. Semiconductor and AI-related stocks, which had suffered some of the steepest declines, led the recovery.

The rebound followed Wall Street's most severe sell-off in nearly 18 months. On Thursday, the Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 tumbled 4.4%, while the Dow Jones dropped more than 1,800 points, or approximately 3.4%. All three major indices recorded their worst single-day performances since April 2025.

Gold came under renewed selling pressure ahead of the weekend. Spot gold fell approximately 1% intraday, briefly touching a low of $4,029.93 per ounce before recovering towards $4,056. US gold futures declined around 1.4% to approximately $4,057. Despite Friday's weakness, gold still gained roughly 4.5% over the week, putting it on course for its strongest weekly performance since late August.

Silver traded just below $52 per ounce as stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls boosted the dollar and reinforced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Nevertheless, silver gained more than 6% over the week. Increased demand for safe-haven assets following the Democrats' decisive midterm election victory supported precious metals, as investors reduced exposure to AI-related equities and shifted towards more defensive investments.

The US dollar was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the strong employment report. October's better-than-expected labour market figures extended the greenback's rally, while heightened safe-haven demand amid the global equity sell-off provided additional support. Concerns over stretched AI valuations and the prospect of tighter regulation also contributed to risk aversion.

The US Dollar Index climbed towards 102.36 on Friday, putting it on track for its strongest daily performance since September 16. EUR/USD declined approximately 0.6% to around 1.1157, GBP/USD lost more than 0.6%, and the Japanese yen also weakened.

EUR/USD extended its late-week pullback, falling towards a multi-day low near 1.1140 as the dollar regained momentum. Stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls, together with a modest rebound in Treasury yields across the curve, reinforced the greenback's recovery.

USD/JPY rebounded from its weekly low during the Asian trading session as bearish traders became more cautious ahead of Friday's US employment report. However, the pair's upside appeared limited by the recent decline in US bond yields and optimism surrounding a potential easing of tensions with Iran, both of which had weighed on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and the possibility of currency intervention continued to provide support for the yen.

GBP/USD faced renewed selling pressure on Friday, slipping below the closely watched 1.3400 level and testing its weekly lows. Sterling's weakness was largely driven by broad-based dollar strength following the stronger-than-expected October US labour market report.

AUD/USD fell to a three-week low as a dovish shift in the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy outlook and the sharp sell-off in global equities weighed on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. However, the recent decline in US Treasury yields to two-month lows had kept dollar bulls under pressure, helping to limit the pair's losses.

WTI crude oil fluctuated just below $90 per barrel ahead of the weekend, alternating between gains and losses throughout the session. Prices moved within an unusually wide range of approximately $13 over the week, putting crude on course for its largest weekly decline since April 2020, at a reported 112.20%. The sharp volatility followed the outcome of the US midterm elections, as investors reassessed the prospects of de-escalation in the Middle East and the potential restoration of regional energy flows.

Bitcoin also experienced significant volatility throughout the week. Following the release of the US employment report, Bitcoin briefly surged above $76,100 before retreating towards $75,600. Its intraday trading range extended from approximately $74,900 to $76,400.

Despite the surprisingly strong jobs figures, Bitcoin did not immediately suffer a major sell-off. Market participants suggested that the primary source of pressure on cryptocurrencies came from the broader retreat in technology stocks and risk assets rather than the employment report itself. Nevertheless, growing expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December suggest that a prolonged high-interest-rate environment could continue to weigh on digital assets.

US Treasury yields also moved higher following the employment data. The benchmark 10-year yield rose approximately 3 basis points to around 4.87%, while the 2-year yield increased by more than 5 basis points to approximately 4.53%. The simultaneous rise in the dollar and Treasury yields created additional headwinds for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Market Outlook: November 9–13
The week ahead is expected to be shaped by a combination of major economic releases, monetary policy signals, and geopolitical developments, creating the potential for another period of heightened market volatility.

In the United States, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, together with a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for a possible December interest rate increase.

At the same time, ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, the planned Russia–Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi, and evolving expectations surrounding the Democrats' approach to AI regulation could continue to influence global risk sentiment and the direction of the US dollar.

These developments are likely to interact throughout the week, potentially amplifying volatility across equities, currencies, commodities, and other risk-sensitive assets.

One of the week's most closely watched events will be Wednesday's proposed trilateral talks involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.

The meeting represents a potentially important window for diplomatic progress. Any meaningful signs of de-escalation could trigger a rapid improvement in risk appetite, placing downward pressure on crude oil and the US dollar while potentially supporting gold.

Conversely, a lack of tangible progress, or any renewed escalation in tensions, could push energy risk premiums higher and revive inflation concerns. Such a scenario could reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, providing renewed support for the dollar. Geopolitical developments are therefore likely to remain a major influence on asset prices throughout the week.

Beyond the United States, investors will also be monitoring economic releases from the eurozone, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan.

Speeches and meeting minutes from central banks in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada will also be closely watched, particularly for their potential impact on commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar (AUD), New Zealand dollar (NZD), and Canadian dollar (CAD).

Conclusion
The November 9–13 trading week is likely to be characterised by the convergence of economic data, geopolitical developments, and shifting policy expectations.

Under the baseline scenario, Tuesday's US CPI report will be the first major catalyst. The extent to which inflation remains persistent will be a key determinant of the dollar's near-term direction and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Meanwhile, the Russia–Ukraine talks and developments in the US–Iran conflict could generate sudden intraday price swings as markets react to geopolitical headlines.

The evolving debate over AI regulation will also influence investor appetite for US technology stocks, with potential spillover effects on broader risk sentiment and real interest rates.

The key downside risk for global markets is a renewed surge in energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions. If oil prices rise sharply and energy-related inflation pressures return, Federal Reserve officials could adopt a more hawkish stance, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening and driving another round of US dollar strength.

Overall, investors should prepare for a potentially volatile week in which inflation data, geopolitical headlines, and central bank communications could rapidly shift market expectations and trading direction.